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April 29th 2007, 10:00 AM
Tunafish
Random number generators
Why waste time and money using a random number generator? Instead you can simply use anything from dice to tossing a coin. While yes, the results that they produce are not completly random, it doesn't matter as the influences that make the outcome of a coin toss or throw of a die might as well be. The popular argument is that If a die, for example, has a some dirt on one of its sides that will increase the chances of it landing on a particular side by 0.000001% then it is therefore not random. While this statement is true this is not the whole picture. How did the dirt get there? Perhaps a group of dust particles stuck to it at some point because of static attractions. What are the odds of this piece of dust having the exact weight that it did? Landing in the exact place that it did on the die? Odds of the dust staying stuck to the die? Each of these questions has almost an infinite number of possible results, and there are thousands, perhaps millions more influences that would will distort the odds of the end result. Once you multiply the collective odds of this particular piece of dust being where it is, it turns out that the odds of it being exactly where it is are so slim that it is trillions and trillions to one. However, even this does not paint the whole picture. How did the dust even get near the die in the first place? If it weren't for a sudden gust of wind ten years ago, that single peice of dust could be on the other side of the world. What caused the gust? Would that not have happend if there was no city near by producing heat energy and causing an area of lower atmospheric pressure? If one person in particular had decided to slightly turn their heating up, how many grams of insulating synthetic wool were in a particular cavity in one of the walls? What if the cavity wall insulation was never invented? The list is unfathomably huge, perhaps infinite. What is the die was made differently, what if dice were never invented at all? What if the human race died out thousands of years ago?
My point is, that while yes, rolling dice to try to achieve a random result can be biased, there are so many variables that influenced the final outcome of that one roll that we have no control over could therefore might as well be random. Why spend £100 on a random number generator when the end result of rolling a die is SO close to being random.
Okay, so my point is a little half baked and mabye isn't valid - I haven't made my mind up yet, just something kind of intresting disguised as a rant about random number generators. What do you think?
Why waste time and money using a random number generator? Instead you can simply use anything from dice to tossing a coin. While yes, the results that they produce are not completly random, it doesn't matter as the influences that make the outcome of a coin toss or throw of a die might as well be. The popular argument is that If a die, for example, has a some dirt on one of its sides that will increase the chances of it landing on a particular side by 0.000001% then it is therefore not random. While this statement is true this is not the whole picture. How did the dirt get there? Perhaps a group of dust particles stuck to it at some point because of static attractions. What are the odds of this piece of dust having the exact weight that it did? Landing in the exact place that it did on the die? Odds of the dust staying stuck to the die? Each of these questions has almost an infinite number of possible results, and there are thousands, perhaps millions more influences that would will distort the odds of the end result. Once you multiply the collective odds of this particular piece of dust being where it is, it turns out that the odds of it being exactly where it is are so slim that it is trillions and trillions to one. However, even this does not paint the whole picture. How did the dust even get near the die in the first place? If it weren't for a sudden gust of wind ten years ago, that single peice of dust could be on the other side of the world. What caused the gust? Would that not have happend if there was no city near by producing heat energy and causing an area of lower atmospheric pressure? If one person in particular had decided to slightly turn their heating up, how many grams of insulating synthetic wool were in a particular cavity in one of the walls? What if the cavity wall insulation was never invented? The list is unfathomably huge, perhaps infinite. What is the die was made differently, what if dice were never invented at all? What if the human race died out thousands of years ago?
My point is, that while yes, rolling dice to try to achieve a random result can be biased, there are so many variables that influenced the final outcome of that one roll that we have no control over could therefore might as well be random. Why spend £100 on a random number generator when the end result of rolling a die is SO close to being random.
Okay, so my point is a little half baked and mabye isn't valid - I haven't made my mind up yet, just something kind of intresting disguised as a rant about random number generators. What do you think?
